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    Coindesk发布2018年Q1区块链发展报告:六大趋势值得关注

    导读:在2017年达到历史最高点后,今年第一季度加密货币持续下滑,在多个基本指标上有所反映。为了分析动荡不安的2018年1季度指标,CoinDesk发布最新的区块链发展报告,金色财经对其进行整理以飨读者。

    在2017年达到历史最高点后,今年第一季度加密货币持续下滑,在多个基本指标上有所反映。

    行业整体弥漫着不安情绪,主要源自监管的不确定性和经历了一年高增长之后的回落趋势。

    为了分析动荡不安的2018年1季度指标,CoinDesk发布最新的区块链发展报告,利用90多张幻灯片对整个市场进行了全面分析。

    该报告于本周一发布,涵盖了公共区块链、分布式账本技术(DLT)、联盟链、初始代币发行、交易和投资以及监管。本次报告提供了有关50多个问题的情绪调查结果,调查主要提供了420多个CoinDesk读者的洞察与见解。

    以下是2018年Q1的六个最重要趋势:

    GJZzlhegd1M8LkweJgR2o1o6btk4mTExYOGp9lCz.png

    1、加密市场进入熊市

    在上个季度,比特币的价格曾创下近2万美元的历史新高,但2018年第一季度跌幅为51%。其他基本指标(如交易量,交易数量和成交量)也有类似的下降。

    山寨币方面同样有所显示,跟随比特币下跌而下跌,相关系数为0.7—0.9不等。整个加密货币市场市值损失约3480亿美元。

    这些数据看起来很糟糕,但这并没有体现在整体的市场情绪当中,在针对CoinDesk读者情绪的调查中显示,79%的受访者认为熊市是短暂的。86%的受访者表示,此次下跌是对前一季度过度投机行为的一次修正,62%的受访者认为监管对此次下跌负有一定的责任。

    SM6JmU9y3i0B7pB13wmASCaXUqkpIAAhYoVWQJV4.png

    2、市场的成熟

    在上年度第四季度末推出比特币期货市场之后,该期货市场在第一季度实现了稳步增长。多头和空头头寸都有所增长——值得注意的是,空头数量远远超过多头。

    截至目前,Q1的空头仓位约为5000个,而多头仓位约为3000个。大多数是悲观的投资者在利用这些合约。反过来这也导致了相关资产的下跌。

    旧金山联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)的研究人员表示,“新的投资机会(比特币期货)导致现货比特币市场需求下降,从而导致价格下跌。”

    DyGhyc2G71dgmIRzyiATB6wqaBiJtMwx9xLXvmxB.png

    3、矿工们着眼长期 保持乐观态度

    然而,比特币矿工们并没有出现下跌阶段。

    在第一季度,我们看到哈希率的斜率 – 确保比特币网络安全的处理能力指标- 与市场市值不同,不是都朝着同一个方向移动,比如在2017年第四季度相同。哈希率在本季度增长了47%,几乎没有偏差。

    比特币的哈希率在竞争中保持强劲; 比特币现金,哈希率第二强的加密货币,本季度平均只有比特币哈希比率的12%。

    同样值得注意的是,矿工们都以长期视角看待市场,并且和短期悲观主义者相反。7%的受访者表示,他们在第一季度更了解矿工发展情况。

    nrCioUB4PfQ3q2D9DAv55FU0y9w1QxNGp7xK5ein.png

    4、缴税压力依旧很大

    对许多投资者而言,税收是首要考虑因素,根据市场总收益和各国政府的平均税率,在2017年,加密货币为全球税收带来了大约700亿美元的收入。

    围绕加密货币的税收参数仍在不断变化。31%的受访者表示,他们会缴纳投资收益相关税费;然而, 有缴税义务的人数可能高于报告应税收益的人数。

    美国82%的受访者表示,他们不容易理解自己的纳税义务,62%的非美国受访者表示相同的观点。这些观察支持了一个理论,即人们(包括监管机构)对整个资产类别的法律和税收状况感到困惑。

    美国与非美国受访者之间20%的税收差异可能表明美国无法接受下一代金融技术,同时竞争国家正在考虑采取更友好的策略。

    fBZB8RlIpazqOfoN6DU6tHBxLHnq8VuUUJ8WzpUp.png

    5、ICO依然活跃,增长仍在继续

    ICO活动依然活跃,第一季度募集资金63亿美元。ICO月度分析显示,Q1的每个月份都高于12月份的融资记录。

    Telegram17亿美元的ICO是融资最大的一个项目,占第一季度资金的25%以上。这一时期融资金额第二大ICO项目是Dragon融资3.2亿美元。如果没有Telegram,3月份的融资金额会低于12月份。

    然而融资规模更高的ICO似乎成为发展的趋势。从Q4到Q1平均融资金额几乎翻了一番,从1600万美元增加到3100万美元。从ICO的分布来看,ICO项目融资规模更大,融资项目更少。

    ICO数量从12月份最高点(78个)下降,除了3月略有增加。虽然ICO数量的减少可能是一个看跌信号,但数据显示,40%的受访者参与了ICO,而上个季度的这一比例为30%。

    Nsdm550bR4MMH1WpsQgIv0nUcPQWU2cHTsd93XHi.png

    6、费用下降

    比特币的交易费从2017年第四季度高点回落,当时的平均收费为40美元。在第一季度,每笔交易的费用平均为9.49美元。

    大多数其他加密货币的费用也下降了60%至90%,但从绝对数字来看,它们在第一季度之前从未如此高。

    高额费用可能会阻碍用户进行交易,但费用下降并且交易数量仍然下降的情况并不常见。费用水平是需求的晴雨表。随着越来越多的人在Q4购买加密货币,我们也看到费用增加。因此,降低收费可能意味着需求正在萎缩。

    但有一些解决方案也有助于进一步降低费用,最明显的是闪电网络,该网络在第一季度取得了重大进展,并表明它将成为稳定的第二层解决方案,适用于频繁和小规模的交易。

    78%的受访者认为闪电网络是一个积极的发展,并期待使用它。而21%的受访者表示闪电网络将使得使比特币更加集中化,另外79%的人认为比特币不会有任何变化,也不会出现集中化程度下降。

    (本文编译自Coindesk)

    本文来源: momoshui 文章作者: 佚名
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